Analysts project a rocket shortage outside China lasting through the decade
Adding US military demand could roughly double the gap, depending on whether SpaceX extends its Falcon flights.
Quilty Space, an analytics firm, projects a global rocket shortage outside China that persists through the end of the decade. It estimates roughly 150 launches fall short of demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies between now and 2030. Adding US military demand could double that gap, particularly if SpaceX does not extend its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy flights to cover rising national security needs. Quilty's director of research said the crunch is worse than expected and may not ease until the late 2030s. For developers and founders relying on satellite launches, that points to tight capacity and pricing pressure for years.
Why it matters
The shortfall falls on satellite operators and civil space agencies that need rockets to reach orbit, and it leaves them with fewer launch options for years. Because the projection depends on SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy flights covering rising national security needs, any change in that coverage would widen or narrow the gap. For readers following the space industry, the forecast suggests that the launch bottleneck is structural rather than a short-term delay.
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