Memory chip shortage expected to worsen into 2027, with relief timelines disputed
Forecasts for when memory prices turn range from the second half of 2027 to 2029, and no one can yet say which will hold.
Team Group's chief executive, Chen Ching-wen, told investors on a November 2 earnings call that memory chip scarcity is likely to intensify from late 2026 through late 2027, with no sign of falling prices. He put the premium for spot-market memory over long-term contracts at 30% to 50%, and said contract prices for 16GB DDR5 modules rose from $8.70 in October 2025 to $48 by September 2026. He expects supply and demand not to balance before the second half of 2028. Separately, the company's chairman said that although CXMT and YMTC now hold close to 10% of the market, leading high-end DRAM and NAND output still comes from Kioxia, Micron, Samsung and SK hynix, and that budget-chip pricing will not ease before 2029. Those timelines conflict with Acer CEO Jason Chen's forecast that prices will turn by the second half of 2027, so no one can yet say which view will hold.
Why it matters
The shortage is affecting a wide range of buyers, from those purchasing spot memory to those on long-term contracts, and the gap between the two is wide enough to shape pricing decisions. Industry leaders disagree on when conditions will ease, with one view placing the turn in late 2027 and another pushing it to 2029. Because the high-end DRAM and NAND market remains concentrated among a few established producers, newer entrants have not yet changed who supplies the most advanced parts. For readers following the sector, the open question is whether supply additions from newer manufacturers will close the gap soon enough to match the earlier forecast.
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