US Data Center Buildout Could Add Emissions Equal to Mexico's, Sierra Club Estimate Says

Gas-fired power for the buildout could erase roughly 15 years of US power-sector emissions progress, though analysts say the outcome remains uncertain.

A Sierra Club estimate reported by Bloomberg projects that U.S. data center buildouts could push the country's power sector to put about 2.1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by the end of the decade, a 42% rise over 2025 figures and enough to undo roughly 15 years of emissions progress. The group's earlier estimates came in at a quarter to half of that figure. Current laws requiring new data centers to draw a large share of their power from renewables usually do not apply retroactively and often phase in slowly, so they do little to close the gap. About 40% of U.S. data centers already run on natural gas turbines, whose prices have risen around 50% and whose production is backlogged for years. Other analysts caution that the outcome is uncertain, since permit requests far exceed available grid capacity, many projects face local opposition, and doubts about hyperscaler economics could stall some builds.