Study finds AI has not yet cut jobs for recent college graduates
Researchers warn AI’s hiring impact may grow by 2026 as firms ramp up automation and AI spending.
A CESifo working paper by economists Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu says employment data do not show a broad AI-related decline in hiring or jobs for recent graduates, differing from a Stanford study that found weaker entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations. The researchers focused on new graduates because employers might respond to automation by cutting junior recruitment before dismissing established staff. They suggest people entering the job market in 2026 could face greater pressure than graduates from a year or two earlier. Their concern reflects recent indicators: a Census survey showed a sharp rise in firms replacing many employee tasks with AI, while AI spending per employee and ChatGPT Enterprise token use also grew over the past 12 months.
Why it matters
For students finishing college now, the findings suggest the labor market has so far held up better than some earlier research implied, even in fields exposed to automation. But the warning about 2026 underscores that the risk for future graduating classes is rising as more companies replace employee tasks with AI and increase AI-related spending, signaling that the window of relative stability for new entrants to the job market may be narrowing.
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Sources
- Ars Technica