Study finds no broad AI-driven jobs decline for recent graduates
The authors say junior openings could face pressure before established workers do, with 2026 entrants more exposed.
A CESifo working paper by economists Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu says employment data do not show a broad AI-related decline in hiring or jobs for recent graduates, differing from a Stanford study that found weaker entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations. The researchers focused on new graduates because employers might respond to automation by cutting junior recruitment before dismissing established staff. They suggest people entering the job market in 2026 could face greater pressure than graduates from a year or two earlier. Their concern reflects recent indicators: a Census survey showed a sharp rise in firms replacing many employee tasks with AI, while AI spending per employee and ChatGPT Enterprise token use also grew over the past 12 months.
Why it matters
For people entering work, the risk may show up first in fewer openings rather than layoffs among experienced staff. That makes the outlook less secure for the 2026 cohort than for graduates a year or two earlier, even though the researchers have not found broad displacement so far.
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